The Bank of England raised its
benchmark interest rate to a six-year high as consumer spending, a
house-price boom and record employment drove inflation to the
fastest in a decade.
The nine-member Monetary Policy Committee increased the Bank
Rate by a quarter-point to 5.5 percent, the highest since April
2001, the bank said today in London. All 61 economists in a
Bloomberg News survey predicted the decision. Eleven of 43
economists expect another move to 5.75 percent this year.
U.K. borrowing costs are now the highest among the Group of
Seven nations. Governor Mervyn King, marking the government's
decision to give the bank independence a decade ago, promised last
week to return inflation to the 2 percent target from 3.1 percent
in March. That rate was the highest since at least 1997 and the
bank said today inflation risks remain ``tilted to the upside.''
``While there's no cause to panic, the bank still has issues
to deal with, and they will be sorted out by tightening the
monetary screws some more,'' said Philip Shaw, chief economist at
Investec Securities in London. ``We see rates moving to 5.75
percent in July, but we wouldn't rule out a hike next month.''
Today's increase is the fourth since the start of August. At
5.5 percent, Britain's key rate is higher than the 5.25 percent in
the U.S. The European Central Bank kept its benchmark rate at 3.75
percent at today's meeting in Dublin. Canada's main rate is 4.25
percent and Japan's is 0.5 percent.
`Upside' Risks
``The margin of spare capacity in firms appears limited and
there are signs that businesses are more able to push through
price increases,'' the bank said in a statement today.
The rate moves so far have failed to cool the British
property market or consumer spending. House-price inflation was
10.9 percent in the quarter through April, the second-highest rate
in the past two years, HBOS Plc, the country's biggest mortgage
lender, said today. Retail sales rose for a second month in March.
Today's quarter-point increase raises the monthly payment on
a 200,000-pound mortgage that tracks the Bank Rate by 30 pounds.
Payments will now be about 120 pounds more a month than before the
interest-rate increase in August, according to the Council of
Mortgage Lenders.
Barclays, Lloyds
Lenders which have announced plans to raise their own
interest rate since the central bank's decision at noon today in
London include Barclays Plc, the U.K.'s third-biggest and Lloyds
TSB Group Plc, the fifth-largest.
While variable rates account for around half of all
mortgages, four out of five recent borrowers have chosen a fixed-
rate loan to shield themselves from higher borrowing costs, the
Council for Mortgage Lenders said yesterday.
``The higher proportion of fixed rate mortgages taken out by
recent first time buyers should, for now, shield the new entrants
to the housing market from the shock of higher rates,'' said David
Stubbs, senior economist at the Royal Institution of Chartered
Surveyors, in a statement.
Speculation of higher U.K. borrowing costs helped drive the
pound to $2.0133 on April 18, the most in a quarter-century. The
pound was at $1.9824 at 2:33 p.m. in London, compared with $1.9876
before the announcement.
Futures trading suggests investors expect another rate
increase after today. The implied rate on the September interest-
rate futures contract was unchanged at 5.94 percent. The contract,
which settles to the three-month London inter-bank offered rate
for the pound, averaged about 15 basis points more than the
central bank's benchmark for the past decade.
Decade of Rate-Setting
Prime Minister Tony Blair and Chancellor of the Exchequer
Gordon Brown handed the Bank of England the authority to set
interest rates within a week of coming to power in 1997. Since
then, the economy has expanded for 40 consecutive quarters and
U.K. inflation has been lower than in any other 10-year period
since World War II.
Blair also said he will step down on June 27, with Brown the
favorite to take over as prime minister. The ruling Labour Party's
standing in the polls remains close to a 20-year low because of
concern about the quality of public services and Blair's support
for the Iraq war.
``This is the greatest period of political instability in a
decade, and the Bank of England is hiking rates,'' said Michael
Saunders, chief western European economist at Citigroup Inc. in
London. ``It really shows the de-politicization of the bank.''
Services Growth
The U.K. economy expanded 0.7 percent in the first quarter
from the fourth, the same pace as in the previous two quarters and
more than economists had estimated. Gross domestic product grew
2.8 percent last year, the most since 2004, and the central bank
forecasts expansion of about 3 percent this year.
Growth in 2006 was powered by services in a record year for
mergers and acquisitions that has persisted into this year.
Business services and finance account for about 28 percent of the
economy, compared with manufacturing's 15 percent.
Factory production rose 0.6 percent in March from the
previous month, more than economists forecast, the statistics
office said today. A survey released May 1 by the Chartered
Institute of Purchasing Supply showed that companies are charging
customers more, feeding price pressures into the economy.
Unemployment fell to the lowest in more than a year in March
and earnings growth accelerated to the fastest pace since 2004.
Letter to Brown
The March inflation rate, more than a percentage point above
the bank's target, forced King to write to Brown on April 17 with
the assurance that policy makers are ``determined'' to quell price
increases. His letter to the Treasury was the first since the bank
won independence in 1997.
There are some signs that higher interest rates are starting
to discourage Britons from borrowing. Personal insolvencies
reached a record last quarter as Britons shouldered 1.3 trillion
pounds ($2.6 trillion) of debt. Mortgage approvals fell to the
lowest in 11 months in March.
``We are concerned this increase will make life even tougher
for consumers who are already heavily burdened with debt and
higher living costs,'' said Kevin Hawkins, director general of the
British Retail Consortium, which represents about 80 percent of
U.K. retailers, in a statement. The decision ``may turn out to be
unnecessary.''
The central bank said today that inflation will slow to
target ``in the course of this year,'' curbed by lower utility
costs and import prices. King will give an update on the central
bank's predictions next week.
``Inflation is going to come back below 3 percent and down to
target,'' said Stewart Robertson, an economist at Morley Fund
Management Ltd. in London, which manages the equivalent of $329
billion in assets. ``If it doesn't, obviously there's a risk they
have to do more tightening.''
To contact the reporter on this story:
Brian Swint in London at .
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